Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.015200 0.017192 0.019349 0.021857 0.024694 0.027805 0.031476
2025-10-05 0.012404 0.015233 0.018553 0.022743 0.027892 0.034019 0.041875
2025-10-12 0.010751 0.013965 0.017955 0.023278 0.030202 0.038919 0.050751
2025-10-19 0.009617 0.013081 0.017581 0.023865 0.032431 0.043724 0.059791
2025-10-26 0.008498 0.012027 0.016798 0.023728 0.033564 0.047062 0.067066
2025-11-02 0.007648 0.011215 0.016211 0.023731 0.034797 0.050540 0.074741
2025-11-09 0.006822 0.010333 0.015410 0.023303 0.035309 0.052958 0.081014
2025-11-16 0.006314 0.009855 0.015131 0.023584 0.036843 0.056938 0.089895
2025-11-23 0.005761 0.009248 0.014589 0.023389 0.037594 0.059746 0.097151
2025-11-30 0.005450 0.008984 0.014542 0.023946 0.039546 0.064540 0.107931
2025-12-07 0.004907 0.008293 0.013749 0.023216 0.039327 0.065802 0.112979
2025-12-14 0.004505 0.007796 0.013228 0.022878 0.039705 0.068039 0.119802
2025-12-21 0.004068 0.007207 0.012511 0.022162 0.039407 0.069157 0.124879
2025-12-28 0.003942 0.007151 0.012700 0.023037 0.041960 0.075404 0.139614
2026-01-04 0.003774 0.007001 0.012707 0.023580 0.043952 0.080798 0.153241
2026-01-11 0.003627 0.006875 0.012744 0.024175 0.046077 0.086584 0.168077
2026-01-18 0.003390 0.006560 0.012407 0.024036 0.046800 0.089811 0.178270
2026-01-25 0.003193 0.006304 0.012158 0.024039 0.047786 0.093597 0.189855
2026-02-01 0.002959 0.005957 0.011707 0.023606 0.047872 0.095631 0.198078
2026-02-08 0.002829 0.005805 0.011621 0.023891 0.049412 0.100642 0.212794
2026-02-15 0.002656 0.005550 0.011311 0.023693 0.049942 0.103648 0.223557
2026-02-22 0.002576 0.005481 0.011369 0.024257 0.052103 0.110159 0.242334
2026-03-01 0.002372 0.005135 0.010830 0.023518 0.051426 0.110666 0.248061